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Volume 642 Issue 8068, 19 June 2025
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Volume 642 Issue 8068, 19 June 2025

Food forecast

The cover shows a satellite image of circular patches of irrigated land in the Western Desert in Egypt. Such land reclamation is one of many strategies that could be deployed to mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture and land use. But understanding how adaptation in the face of a warming climate might affect food systems is uncertain — models have so far tended to focus on a single region and so have generated conflicting results. In this week’s issue, Andrew Hultgren and colleagues present a model the brings together data for six staple crops across the globe. The researchers focused on maize, soya beans, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum, drawing data from 12,658 regions across 55 countries to estimate the impacts of producer adaptation during the coming century. They estimate that for every 1 °C increase in temperature, food production will decline from current levels by 120 calories per person per day, but that income growth and adaptation strategies could alleviate 23% of global losses by 2050 and 34% by 2100.

Cover image: Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory/USGS Landsat.

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